Inflation Inflation just had its biggest drop in 6 years. Oil is still rising. Both things are true and that is the whole problem. CPI fell to 3.5%, blowing past estimates. All five major banks beat earnings. Goldman surged 9%. Warsh told Congress the inflation surge will be "a thing of the past." Then Trump walked back the 20% Hormuz toll. Markets ended the day trying to figure out which number to believe.
Federal Reserve The Fed chair said nothing. Today's minutes are the most important document he's ever released. Nine officials want a hike. Eight want to hold. One wants a cut. Warsh submitted no projection at all. Today at 2 PM the only on-record statement about September's rate decision drops — and it will move everything.
Semiconductors Samsung made 19 times more profit than last year. Its stock fell 7%. Welcome to earnings season. SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 and immediately dropped 6%. DeepSeek is building a chip to replace Nvidia. Amazon wants $25 billion. And Trump told Walmart to cut prices on Truth Social. Tuesday had range.
Markets The President rang the stock market's opening bell from the Oval Office today. That sentence used to be impossible. Trump Accounts launched, Russia-Ukraine entered a new phase over the holiday weekend, OpenAI wants the government to own a piece of it, and Anthropic just signed a $19 billion power deal. The holiday is over. The week is not waiting.
National Security Trump decided to keep talking to Iran. Khamenei's funeral is scheduled for July 4th. Nobody is calling that a coincidence. A Republican revolt killed Congress's own to-do list, a $3.7 billion merger collapsed because of a U.K. regulator, and the Strait of Hormuz just got a security rating nobody wanted. Wednesday had range.
National Security Five of America's biggest drug companies got letters from Congress today. Read those letters carefully. A pharma national security investigation, a best quarter in six years nobody is celebrating loudly, and a drone company you've never heard of that just told you more about the future of war than the Pentagon did.
Markets Featured Iran requested the meeting. That's the whole story. A compute shortage, a record Dow close, and a phone call nobody saw coming, four unrelated headlines today that are actually one story about leverage.
