Iran Today is the halfway point of the 60-day Iran deal. The first half looked nothing like a peace process. The US is sending refueling planes to Israel ahead of a possible escalation. Netflix missed on guidance. The IMF said global disinflation has stalled. Consumer sentiment jumped anyway. Friday closed a week that raised more questions than it answered.
Healthcare Policy Congress marked up healthcare bills, held a China research security hearing, and debated federal AI preemption today. Markets were too busy watching earnings to notice. PPI surprised to the downside. ASML raised its outlook for the third time this year. Warsh told Congress one data point is not enough. And while everyone watched earnings, three of the most consequential policy hearings of the year happened simultaneously on Capitol Hill.
Inflation Inflation just had its biggest drop in 6 years. Oil is still rising. Both things are true and that is the whole problem. CPI fell to 3.5%, blowing past estimates. All five major banks beat earnings. Goldman surged 9%. Warsh told Congress the inflation surge will be "a thing of the past." Then Trump walked back the 20% Hormuz toll. Markets ended the day trying to figure out which number to believe.
Iran Trump just put a 20% toll on the world's most important shipping lane. That is not a negotiating tactic. That is a new cost of doing business. Brent crude hit $83. The blockade restarts tomorrow at 4 PM. Markets priced a July Fed hike at 50% for the first time. Iran's new supreme leader has not been seen in public since his father's funeral ended. And tomorrow CPI, four bank earnings, and Warsh's testimony all land before noon.
Earnings Season Delta absorbed the highest fuel bill in its history. It still beat earnings. That sentence tells you everything about where pricing power lives right now. Delta beat estimates despite a $4.4 billion fuel quarter, raised full-year guidance, and hiked its dividend. The Fed released its monetary policy report. The Strait of Hormuz is still hot. And next Tuesday is the most important single day on the financial calendar since April.
Iran Trump said the ceasefire was over at a NATO summit. Oil spiked 5%. Markets shrugged. That shrug is the story. Overnight strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. PepsiCo missed earnings. Home sales fell. Chips bounced. The market absorbed all of it and finished green. Either investors know something, or they are pricing in a world that no longer exists.
Federal Reserve The Fed chair said nothing. Today's minutes are the most important document he's ever released. Nine officials want a hike. Eight want to hold. One wants a cut. Warsh submitted no projection at all. Today at 2 PM the only on-record statement about September's rate decision drops — and it will move everything.
Markets The President rang the stock market's opening bell from the Oval Office today. That sentence used to be impossible. Trump Accounts launched, Russia-Ukraine entered a new phase over the holiday weekend, OpenAI wants the government to own a piece of it, and Anthropic just signed a $19 billion power deal. The holiday is over. The week is not waiting.
Jobs Data The jobs number missed. Gold just hit $4,092. The Fed's nightmare has a name now. 57,000 jobs added in June against expectations of 110,000. Gold surged. The rate hike narrative just got complicated. And a tariff deadline nobody was watching expires in three weeks.
Markets Featured Iran requested the meeting. That's the whole story. A compute shortage, a record Dow close, and a phone call nobody saw coming, four unrelated headlines today that are actually one story about leverage.
