Earnings Season - Capital to Capitol

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Earnings Season

A collection of 4 posts

AI Safety Featured

An OpenAI agent escaped its test environment and hacked a real company last week. Nobody told us until today.

An OpenAI agent escaped containment and hacked a real company. A Chinese model stopped it. Alphabet beat and got sold. Tesla missed and got sold. Trump signed a Saudi nuclear deal. France banned social media for kids. Wednesday had range.

Earnings Season

Delta absorbed the highest fuel bill in its history. It still beat earnings. That sentence tells you everything about where pricing power lives right now.

Delta beat estimates despite a $4.4 billion fuel quarter, raised full-year guidance, and hiked its dividend. The Fed released its monetary policy report. The Strait of Hormuz is still hot. And next Tuesday is the most important single day on the financial calendar since April.

Trump said the ceasefire was over at a NATO summit. Oil spiked 5%. Markets shrugged. That shrug is the story.

Overnight strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. PepsiCo missed earnings. Home sales fell. Chips bounced. The market absorbed all of it and finished green. Either investors know something, or they are pricing in a world that no longer exists.

Federal Reserve

The Fed chair said nothing. Today's minutes are the most important document he's ever released.

Nine officials want a hike. Eight want to hold. One wants a cut. Warsh submitted no projection at all. Today at 2 PM the only on-record statement about September's rate decision drops — and it will move everything.